The reason is that the state expects future long-term conflicts with the adversary and greater overall costs. On the contrary, if a state’s adversary requests it to change policies, the state would not grant the request even if it could benefit from doing so. Since the state expects greater future benefits from its ally, it is receptive to the ally’s requests to change policies even if doing so would incur short-term costs. The reaction of a small power to big powers depends on its perception of threat, which is affected by other states’ capability and intention (Jervis, 1976 Kang, 2003 Walt, 1987).Ī state feels less threatened by its ally than by an adversary. For a small power whose capability is insufficient to guarantee security, it is particularly concerned about being abused by great powers (Waltz, 1979). International relations theories indicate that a state is rational and seeks to maximize its chance of survival in an anarchic international system.
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If China’s pressure is really a key to changing North Korea’s behavior, then why has the situation worsened with greater Chinese pressure? How to explain North Korea’s behavior? During the same time period, as Table 1 shows, North Korea increased the frequencies of the tests. More recently, in response to the latest North Korean nuclear test and missile tests, China banned exports of petroleum to and imports of textile from North Korea and ordered all North Korean business in China to be closed (Clover et al. In 2013 China slashed fuels exports and cereal exports to North Korea by 81 and 89%, respectively after the latter conducted a third nuclear test. When North Korea conducted the second nuclear test in 2009, China reduced its fuel exports by 44%. For instance, according to the International Trade Center, a joint agency of the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, after North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006 China cut its cereal exports to North Korea by 66% (International Trade Centre, 2017).
Others believe that North Korea’s defiance is attributable to China’s protection and that China should faithfully enforce the international economic sanctions and put greater pressure on North Korea to change its behavior (Dyer, 2016 Office of the Press Secretary, 2014).Ĭhina has put increasingly heavier pressure on North Korea, but its pressure has had little impact on the latter’s behavior. Many believe that the North Korean leaders are irrational and unpredictable (Zahn, 2017). Despite increasingly heavier international diplomatic and economic pressure, North Korea has defied the international community by conducting more frequent nuclear and missile tests (Table 1). To me, such insights shed light on the North Korea–China relationship and the Korean nuclear issue. When I asked the guides about their opinion on China’s vote for the economic sanction against North Korea in the UN Security Council, they said that China had the right to do anything to pursue its national interest and that North Korea by the same token should do the same. Furthermore, they told me that China had been rarely mentioned in the North Korean media and that when it was mentioned it was not referred to as an ally or friend. For instance, my North Korean guides Footnote 1never mentioned the “friendship” between North Korea and China during the trip even when we visited the “Friendship tower”, a monument to the Chinese Voluntary Army who died during the Korean War. The 5-day trip gave me some interesting insight into the North Korea–China relationship. A possible way ahead in dealing with the Korean nuclear issue is proposed. On the contrary, the more China puts pressure on North Korea, the more likely the latter would resist. Therefore, it is argued, asking China to use its leverage on North Korea would not solve the Korean nuclear crisis. Two arguments are made, namely: first, that North Korea does not view its relationship with China as highly as many would think and, second, that China’s role in North Korea’s strategic planning is not significant enough to change its behavior. This paper draws from international relations theories and the history of China–North Korea relations to analyze North Korean foreign policy strategy.
Why has the country been willing and able to defy and resist the international community? What should we do about it? Many stress China’s ties with North Korea and believe that the question of whether China is willing to use its leverage on North Korea is the key to the solution to the Korean nuclear issue. North Korea has defied the international community on its nuclear program despite diplomatic and economic pressure.
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